Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.