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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|