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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.