An Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $436,000 from Bets on Venezuela's Political Shift.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.
Sudden Shift in Wagers
Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the hours before former President Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody.
One account, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Platform data shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.
But the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity right before the social media post was made.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert.
A handful of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers.
Legal Questions Intensifies
Politicians are starting to take note.
A bill put forward on the start of the week would prevent government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from elections to current affairs.
Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.
Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry.
An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."
